An objective view for your markets’ future.
What is it?
The forecast provides a 6-month and/or 18-month* projection from the latest period of GfK Point of Sale (POS) data.
It shows sales units and revenue at market and segment level, split by channels (e.g. internet and physical store sales, where available). The Forecasts are updated weekly and/or monthly* as new data becomes available, automatically capturing the latest economic trends and adjustments.
*Subscription dependent
What can I do with it?
Use it to plan stock ordering and allocation decisions, manage inventory and maximize sales.
Industry leaders use our tool because it provides an objective baseline based on the most accurate data in the market, free from human bias whilst incorporating fast-changing economic realities.
It is backed up by advanced and robust data science techniques, with extensive testing and measurement of accuracy.
Our clients use our forecasts to plan for brand-specific promotions, events, and to measure the impact of extraneous or exogenous events.
Click the download button in the top right to easily export Forecasting values to an Excel compatible file.
How do I read it?
The chart is a year-long view. The black vertical line represents the current data; the orange projection represents the forecast; whilst the blue line represents past historical data to provide a year-on-year comparison.
Hover over to see the numerical values.
Toggle advanced options such as past years’ historical data and confidence interval values with the buttons below the graph.
Above the chart, the channel or segmentation can be selected. This is highly recommended to investigate complex market trends.
Also above the chart, the buttons can switch between showing market revenue or units sold, and either as absolute figures or a cumulative running total.
Year over year performance
Below the main chart you'll find a performance comparison for the current and previous year.
How is it calculated?
The model
The forecasting output is produced using deep learning that learns from up to 10 years of POS data (by brand, country and distribution), equating to over 100,000 individual time series. This type of model can capture highly complex correlations, a significant improvement on traditional statistical methods.
This is enhanced with market expert input for special events and external macroeconomic data.
These types of models have been proved the gold standard in financial market forecasting, since they can handle and even learn from a wide range of time series data. Our bottom-up approach starts with individual sales before aggregating performance to market level. Results are shown within a confidence band providing the probability the true result sits within the predicted range.
Input data
The model combines point of sale data with external social and economic indicators to form intelligent predictions whether a market is in crisis.
Data used includes:
- Multiple GfK POS metrics (including sales volume, revenue, and store information)
- Data on important events (local holidays by country, Black Friday, Olympics, Lunar New Year etc.)
- External macroeconomic data
We built the model to incorporate additional data sources as they become relevant.
Contact your local GfK representative for more information.